Off-Shore Oil Drilling

I've been sick for the last few days, which has left me with the dangerous combination of being grumpy and having some time on my hands. Which brings me to the topic at hand.

President Bush has called for drilling in the outer continental shelf. Specifically, he has said the following:

In the short run, the American economy will continue to rely largely on oil. And that means we need to increase supply, especially here at home. So my administration has repeatedly called on Congress to expand domestic oil production. Unfortunately, Democrats on Capitol Hill have rejected virtually every proposal -- and now Americans are paying the price at the pump for this obstruction. Congress must face a hard reality: Unless Members are willing to accept gas prices at today's painful levels -- or even higher -- our nation must produce more oil. And we must start now. . . .

First, we should expand American oil production by increasing access to the Outer Continental Shelf, or OCS. Experts believe that the OCS could produce about 18 billion barrels of oil. That would be enough to match America's current oil production for almost ten years.

What's interesting about this statement is that the Department of Energy ran a study on drilling in the OCS just last year. The study looked at the current restrictions, which expire in 2012, and mapped out the cases where drilling is allowed and where the restrictions are renewed and no drilling takes place. It found that

access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030. Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017.

So if we suppose that Congress ends the restrictions in 2008, a good first guess is that'd accelerate the timeline by about 4 years across the board: no production sooner than 2013 and no significiant impact on prices before 2026.

The reason there's no significant impact on prices is that OCS drilling would increase domestic oil production by about 7%, but oil prices are set on an international basis. In other words, the amount of increased production domestically wouldn't be enough to have a significant impact on global oil supply. Let's assume that oil would increase supply and therefore lower prices in the U.S.. In that case, the oil companies would have the choice of selling at a lower price in the U.S. market or at a higher price to the international market. Past behavior suggests that the executives directing those companies would feel constrained by a fiduciary duty to their shareholders and would therefore sell on the international market. As a result, the domestic prices would rise to meet the international prices. Now, we could impose laws that prevent the oil companies from selling that crude overseas, which might artifically drive down domestic prices, but those sorts of trade restrictions seem out of character for Mr. Bush's administration. So the most likely result is that a goodly sized chunk of any oil drilled here will feed China's demand for it.

Earlier in the speech, Mr. Bush said, "In the long run, the solution is to reduce demand for oil by promoting alternative energy technologies." It is not clear what time frame "the long run" represents, but there are already interesting developments on the alternative energy horizon, particularly in storage of electricity. For example, Zenn Motor Company and EEstor have announced plans to ship an electric car in late 2009 that will go 80 MPH and have a range of 250 miles and that a properly equipped charger could recharge in a few minutes. Similarly, A123 Systems is currently selling a new lithium ion battery technology with dramatically better energy density. (You can currently buy their stuff in certain lines of Dewalt cordless power tools while they work on the long battery life necessary for plug-in hybrids. They are also currently selling plug-in conversions for the Toyota Prius, though at $10K they're currently a little pricey for my budget.) It's also possible--today--to produce biodiesel from algae (rather than, say, corn), something you don't need arable land to do. (Hmm. I wonder how much land you'd have to devote to algae production to remove a billion tons of carbon dioxide per year from the atmosphere, since bamboo ain't gonna cut it.)

In the meantime, higher fuel prices are having an impact on demand. Amtrak ridership continues to set records, and high gas prices are sending it way up. And Ford is scaling back production for gas guzzlers due to decreasing demand.

Bottom line? Maybe drilling the OCS is not an effective answer either to Mr. Bush's short term goal of increasing supply (beyond insignificant levels) or to his long term goal of reducing dependence on foreign oil.

I tawt I taw a bomber

While cooking dinner, I happened to glance outside just now and saw an airplane silhouette that looked, well, unusual. A quick check with binocs confirmed it: round tail, four engines, big, and not moving all that fast. A B-17 maybe? A few minutes later, it turned and flew over the house, making that distinctive, rumbling big radial engine sound that only World War II warbirds make. And an H-tail. Not a B-17, but a B-24 Liberator. Probably taking people out for rides on a beautiful flying day. Pity there was no camera handy.

The Park and Supergenius Criminal Masterminds

So I've started reading The Park, about a trailer park full of people with superpowers. The idea's got a ton of potential, maybe even for some social commentary. And it looks like the villain just showed up.

Which has got me thinking: why is it that so many supergenius criminal masterminds want to rule the world? "What are we going to do tonight, Brain?" "The same thing we do every night, Pinky, try to take over the world." I mean, say you do take over the world. What do you get? The massive headache of running the whole friggin' world, that's what. And guess who everyone's going to blame the next time there's a war, or a recession, or some government agency muffs disaster relief?

So I'm thinking the really clever supergenius criminal masterminds--you know, the ones a cut above the Wile E. Coyotes of the world--they're not in it for the money or the girls or the private 747 with the jacuzzi tub and reporters and NORAD interface, 'cause there are a lot easier ways to get those things. And they're probably not in it for the recognition, either. Let's face it: a good PR firm will take you a lot further for your dollar than world domination will.

So what is it? Resume padding? The sheer challenge of the thing? The belief that they can run things better than anyone else?

Hmmm. Considering how well things sometimes run, maybe there's something to that last possibility.

the learning curve continues

We moved in last weekend and are getting the new place up and running.

Today's adventure involves the sprinkler system. Since the rains have mostly stopped, our landscape's been dying, which made getting the sprinklers working a high priority. One of the manifolds that controls one of the sprinkler stations is gushing: not merely leaking, but leaking a whole awful lot of water whenever it turns on. So one project for today was to fix or replace the manifold.

I made the mistake of taking the advice from one of the guys at Home Depot who recommended replacing it with a new one. I also learned that replacing one of these beasts involves shutting off the water, cutting the pipes that connect it to the system, and assembling and gluing in the new manifold. So I bought all the parts necessary to do that. The operation started smoothly enough: I assembled the new system, dug around the old one, and cut it off. Only then did I realize that the pipes on the old manifold are a different distance apart than the pipes the new manifold is designed to fit. So, lesson #1: be careful when taking advice from Home Depot.[1] Lesson #2: check the sizes before cutting any pipes.

That left me (us) in a quandary: I had to shut off the water to cut off the manifold, now the pipe's cut, and as long as there's no manifold I can't turn the water back on. At this point, I was in over my head. So we ran a quick web search looking for a plumber who could solve the problem. Lesson #3: plumbers don't necessarily do irrigation, even though both involve pipes. We eventually found an irrigation person, who may or may not be able to make it here before Tuesday morning. In the meantime, he recommended gluing a cap on the supply pipe. So I've done that, and now I'm waiting for the glue to set up before I turn the water back on. Hopefully it'll hold. I guess we'll find out around 3:30 or 4:00.

So much to learn.

Update: at 4:00, I turned on the water and the cap held, so the situation's stabilized until someone who knows what he or she is doing can fix the problem.

[1] The advice from the ex fireman who used to do plumbing work on his days off and now works in the plumbing section turned out to be very helpful for getting the washer and dryer working, so I'm not saying it's all bad, just that caution is necessary.

new thermostat

When installing a new Honeywell digital thermostat to replace an old Honeywell round thermostat, keep in mind that the wire labeled "H" on the old thermostat may, in fact, be the "R" wire. Especially if whatever machine printed the "H" on the thermostat just happened to miss ever so slightly and cut off the top of the letter. And you also have a "W" wire, and the instructions don't seem to account for having both a "W" and an "H."

OK, so pretty obvious. But if you don't figure it out, you can spend an hour puzzling over why the fan won't come on.

Trust me on this one.

worst painter evar

I am not a good painter. For some reason, no matter how hard I try, I end up with drips and runs. When it comes time to paint the airplane, my choices will likely boil down to sending it to a paint shop, paying the paint shop extra to teach me how to paint right, or giving up and going for the polished aluminum look.

Anyway, one of today's big jobs was to "do something" about the shower pan in the master bedroom. The shower pan was pretty beaten-up, with dark spots and a rough finish that was going to accumulate more dirt. I was able to clean it pretty well, using a concoction of household chemicals I'm not eager to face again, but the pan was past the point of looking good.

Since we intend to remodel that bathroom in a few years anyway, we opted to try one of those do-it-yourself refinishing kits, which is essentially a two-part epoxy paint, where you put on your goggles and respirator, play mad chemist mixing stuff from can A with stuff from can B, ventilate the hell out of whatever it is you're painting, and the paint fuses with the surface with chemical vice grips closely related to the glues Burt Rutan used to build Space Ship One.

Anyway, after attacking the shower pan with the barrage of household chemicals I mentioned earlier, I spent today sanding it with 400 grit sandpaper, vacuuming it, and then going over everything with a tack cloth. Shower pans, you see, are specifically made so stuff like dirt and soap scum won't stick to them. Which is why the paint has to use such fearsome chemistry. So you sand the pan to roughen up the surface, and then you make sure those little chemical vice grips end up grabbing onto the rough surface instead of bits of dust you accidentally left there.

Here's a picture of the work in progress:



Anyway, it came out looking a lot better than it had before I started, but there are still more drips and runs than I'd like. I'm debating whether I want to let it harden, sand them out, and put on another coat.

RV-7A meet Toyota Prius

One of today's tasks was transporting the horizontal stabilizer for the airplane that's under construction, a Van's RV-7A, to the new house. The horizontal stabilizer is the horizontal part of the tail. On an RV-7A, both sides of the tail form a single unit. A rather long single unit. And like most airplane parts, it's extremely strong, but only in the ways that it needs to be strong, which means I really wanted to move it myself rather than letting guys who are used to moving furniture do it.

Now, the last time we moved this thing, we put down the top on the convertible and tied the stabilizer across the seats, with one end on the dashboard and the other hanging over the back of the car. That worked OK for moving it less than a mile late enough at night so there'd be no traffic, but it wasn't going to cut it for moving the thing twenty miles at highway speeds.

After puzzling over it for a bit, I decided to try it in the Prius. Amazingly enough, it just fit:




With room to close the hatch, even! With the front seat reclined, and the back seat dropped, one tip of the stabilzer's about an inch from the dash, and the other comes right up against the tailgate. Mission accomplished!